I wish they would shut up with their predictions, they are unsettling given what we lived through but at the end of the day they are nothing more than a mathematical equation. The first four videos are shorter, and the next four are more detailed and longer format. I went straight on to Geonet when we felt the first big rock n roll from the first Sedden event series a couple of years back. This is a few years old but is a good look at plate tectonics in New Zealand: Dunedin is about as far as you can get in the South Island from the fault but when the big one strikes it is certain to be felt here (we feel larger Fiordland earthquakes as well as the bigger Christchurch quakes) and it is likely to have  major effects across the South Island, and also in the lower North Island. Geologically, this is a high probability. The Alpine Fault is the biggest but just one of many fault lines affecting New Zealand. And being on the boundary of the Pacific and Australia tectonic plates, it will happen again. "Although Aotearoa New Zealand had been settled by Māori for about half a millennium when the earthquake occurred, oral histories of the event are rare. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. "The surprises and insights we gained from witnessing a major surface-rupturing earthquake in modern times have made us even more motivated to compile and present current research on the Alpine Fault. Need a new fix. Future Earthquake Predictions. The last time this happened was 301 years ago. Dr Caroline Orchiston. Would be surprised if it set several faults off here – the Cook & Welly are riddled with them. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. The special issue was due to coincide with the 300th anniversary, but research into the Kaikoura quake - one of the most complex ever recorded - took priority. Courtesy of New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa. Your comment on climate change goes well with your first comment on this thread. What if the big one however many years ago settled the thing for eons and took most of the pressure out ? Here, it was like sitting on an overloaded washing machine on the spin cycle. ( Log Out /  Related Articles. Alpine Fault quake expected NZASE article 2019 Scientists estimate a 30 percent likelihood in the next 50 years of a magnitude 8 or higher (M8+) earth- quake along 400km of the Alpine Fault, a strength about three times greater than the 7.8 Kaikoura quake in 2016. 4. Generally the fault has a simple straight trace, striking ca. Experts predicting this will have a 30%+chance of going in the next 50 years. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. Granite mountains would stay more intact. Climbed Avalanche Peak track above Arthurs Pass a decade or two ago. That was despite scientists warning that the ground some buildings sit on could be displaced 8m horizontally – and 1.5m vertically – in the next Alpine Fault quake. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault occurred 295 years ago. georgina.mclean@rnz.co.nz. ( Log Out /  There are contributions from scientists at GNS Science, the Universities of Victoria, Canterbury and Otago, and from overseas. "There will be a similar earthquake soon... Whatever we can learn about this fault and how it moves is, to some extent, helping us understand and prepare for the next great earthquake.". Why do people believe in a non-existent Abrahamic God? From News Extras. Alpine OCTs could then have accommodated compression in several distinct ways ... of Benioff-type intra-oceanic subduction initiation showing foundering of an older oceanic slab at a transform fault, leading to upper-plate extension, formation of supra–subduction zone–affinity oceanic crust, and arc magmatism (after Ishizuka et al., 2018). The fault line along the South Island ruptures roughly every 300 years. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. Front page photograph: The Alpine Fault at Inchbonnie – Hohonus and Taramakau River looking east [L.Homer, GNS] M Trayes, Natural Hazards Analyst West Coast Regional Council February 20 12. They obtain a good fit to the data but their preferred model dip for the Alpine Fault is not as steep as that observed in the field. The last rupture was believed to have happened in 1717. Possibly one feature of our risk is that the Pacific plate is schist to greywache (further from the fault). That sounds dramatically imminent, but the intervals have actually varied between 140 and 510 years, so it may or may not happen in our lifetimes. Threat of quake in alps wanes. But. No Dave if the sun goes quite we expect temperatures to keep increasing . I am more a ban plastic bags, low emission cars, keep the rivers clean, recycle everything possible, hydro power sort of a guy. Lets just pretend scary things cant happen so Dave will not get frightened to much ….EH. South Island plan for the next Alpine Fault quake. Eric Leigh-Pink says: 21 Feb 2018 at 10:31 AM. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Share on Twitter; Share on Facebook; Share via email; Share on Reddit; Share on Linked In ; Georgina McLean, Senior Digital Journalist. The Alpine Fault has a long history of generating large earthquakes, with 27 previous earthquake events in … A very badly made mountain. Scientists, working as part of Project Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (AF8), have marked the end of their first two years of work planning and preparing for a severe magnitude eight earthquakes. The West Coast. Continuous chatter of … Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Erosion rates in the hanging wall of the Alpine Fault are high, keeping pace with rock uplift over time frames of 10⁴–10⁶ years. The spine of the South Island’s most significant earthquake risk, the Alpine Fault, runs right through the Wakatipu. The Alpine Fault forms part of the on-land Pacific-Australian plate boundary. That quake measured an approximate magnitude 8.1, making it about three times stronger than the Kaikoura quake of 2016. When the Eastern face fell away from Mt Cook the underlying rock was described a “weetbix”. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. I guess sooner or later they will get something right, I am hoping its the report I saw last week about going into a cooling period because of the rapid decline in sun activity then I can sit in my armchair in 40 years time look back and chuckle. It collapsed some of the far stream bank which had been sodden with rain & recently butchered by council workers. A massive earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault is predicted to shake Canterbury at a "much higher intensity" than previously thought, new research shows. Numerous experts say it will be the largest natural disaster of … Change ), You are commenting using your Twitter account. Results of the DFDP-2B drilling revealed high temperatures adjacent to the Alpine Fault: much hotter than predicted. May 16,2018; Here is the complete series of videos which have been produced by the AF8 Project. It is known to produce magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years. The South Island's Alpine Fault is overdue for a massive earthquake. View large Download slide. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. The geological record shows the Alpine Fault ruptures, on average, just under every 300 years. The Alpine Fault ruptures in a massive earthquake every 300 years, on average, and the last big one was in 1717. Extensive details are at Project Alpine Fault 8. The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. 3 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes The Alpine Fault. Oct 15,2018 The organisation responsible for planning our response to the forecast Alpine Fault earthquake has released a detailed new South Island-wide strategy and explanatory video. The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault . I know actually finding out about reality gives you RWNJ’s cognitive dissonance so I did not bother. Tuesday 11 September 2018 3:12pm. Video simulations demonstrate widespread destruction across the South Island if New Zealand’s most dangerous fault line ruptures, and there’s evidence the country is due for another big one. Gee mention climate change and Griff appears out of nowhere armed with pretty charts albeit meaningless ones but I appreciate the effort. On an overloaded washing machine on the Midland line magnitude 8 earthquakes approximately every 300 years of! Tourism growth enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of New Zealand Cabinet reshuffle 16,2018 here! Ruptures in a non-existent Abrahamic God tertorism and asteroid catastrophes erosion rates in the next Alpine Fault occurred 295 ago! Commenting using your Twitter account o Aotearoa meh.. who cares its been happening since time started and we! 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